Are The Bitcoin Bulls About To Take Off? – An Analysis!
Are The Bitcoin Bulls About To Take Off? – An Analysis!

Bitcoin is on the verge of reaching a new all-time high. After several unsuccessful attempts in recent months, it now finally seems realistic that Bitcoin could exceed the $72,000 mark. This development is influenced by a variety of factors, including massive inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and positive developments in the traditional financial market.

In this article, we will analyze in detail the key drivers of this potential rise as well as the long-term outlook for Bitcoin.

ETFs and their Importance for the Bitcoin Price

Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have established themselves as a major force in the financial market in recent years. Their role in the development and stabilization of the Bitcoin price cannot be underestimated. ETFs allow institutional investors to invest in Bitcoin without having to buy the cryptocurrency directly. This lowers the barriers to investment and leads to an increased inflow of capital into the Bitcoin market.

Significant inflows into Bitcoin ETFs

In recent weeks and months, Bitcoin ETFs have seen massive inflows. One particularly notable period was the 16-day period of continuous positive inflows into spot ETFs, with a total of over 3.2 billion dollars invested. The largest inflow day since the launch of US spot ETFs recorded almost 1 billion dollars. These inflows show the increasing interest of institutional investors entering the market in a big way.

Bitcoin ETF Inflows Chart

Bitcoin ETF inflows (Image: Dune Analytics)

Another significant day was when the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) received 30 million dollars in inflows, BlackRock 274 million dollars and Fidelity even 380 million dollars. These large sums illustrate the enormous potential that institutional investors see in the Bitcoin market.

The influence of Coinbase and Binance

An important aspect of the current market movements is the premium observed on the Coinbase trading platform compared to Binance. Coinbase, as the most highly regulated exchange in the US, is the preferred platform for American institutions. This premium occurs when the Bitcoin price on Coinbase is higher than on Binance, indicating stronger demand from institutional investors using Coinbase.

Recent price movements show clear correlations between inflows into ETFs and price increases on Coinbase. For example, the price of Bitcoin rose from $68,000 to $71,000, which coincided with increased trading volume in ETFs and an increased Coinbase premium. This indicates that institutional investors are actively entering the market and exerting a significant influence on the Bitcoin price.

Net inflows and their significance

Net inflows, i.e. inflows minus outflows, are another important indicator of market stability. On one of the most important days for net inflows, the second largest inflow day since the introduction of ETFs was recorded. This happened because there were almost no outflows, especially from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, which has often seen high outflows in the past. This trend shows that institutional investors are currently buying more than selling, which supports and stabilizes the Bitcoin price.

Miners and their role in the market

While institutional inflows are supporting the Bitcoin price, miners are also playing a crucial role. We are currently seeing a phase of “miner capitulation”, where unprofitable miners are shutting down their equipment and selling their holdings. This can lead to selling pressure in the short term, but to a more stable market in the long term if only the most profitable miners remain.

One indicator that is often mentioned in this context is the hash ribbons. These indicate when the hash rate, i.e. the total computing power of the network, drops because miners switch off their devices. As soon as the hash rate rises again, this typically signals a recovery phase and is interpreted as a buy signal.

Regulatory Developments and New ETFs

Bitcoin ETFs are gaining in importance not only in the USA, but worldwide. Recently, Thailand launched its first Bitcoin Spot ETF, which is a positive signal for the global market. Such developments are helping to boost investor confidence and encourage further capital inflows.

The influence of traditional financial markets

The traditional financial market also has a significant impact on the Bitcoin price. The S&P 500 has reached a new all-time high, driven by companies such as Nvidia, which is now the second largest company in the world. This positive sentiment in the stock market is also spilling over into the crypto market as investors are looking for high-yielding assets.

The importance of Nvidia

Nvidia has played a key role in the current market performance. With an impressive increase in market capitalization and strong performance, Nvidia has had a significant impact on the S&P 500. The correlation between Bitcoin and tech stocks like Nvidia is currently particularly high, suggesting that positive developments in this sector can also drive the Bitcoin price.

Technical indicators and their importance

Technical indicators such as open interest and hash ribbons, as mentioned above, also play an important role in analyzing the Bitcoin market. Open interest has reached a new all-time high, which is often an indicator of upcoming price movements.

Bitcoin Open Interest on Exchanges

Bitcoin open interest at record high (Image:

At the same time, the hash ribbons indicate that unprofitable miners are leaving the network, which could lead to a more stable market in the long term.

Hash ribbons and their interpretation

Hash ribbons are an indicator of mining activity. If the 30-day average hash rate falls below the 60-day average, this indicates that miners are shutting down their devices. This can lead to selling pressure in the short term, but in the long term it creates the basis for a sustainable increase when the hashrate rises again.

Regulatory Developments and their Impact

Regulatory developments also have an impact on the Bitcoin market. In the US, President Biden has vetoed a crypto-friendly bill, which could cause uncertainty in the short term. At the same time, however, there is also positive news, such as the launch of the first Bitcoin Spot ETF in Thailand, which could attract further interest and capital to the market.

The role of central banks

Central banks around the world play a decisive role in the financial markets and therefore also in the Bitcoin price. Their monetary policy measures have far-reaching effects on liquidity in the markets and directly influence the attractiveness of investments in risky assets such as cryptocurrencies.

Global context and interest rate cuts

In recent months, several central banks have started to cut their key interest rates, increasing liquidity in the markets. One notable example is the Bank of Canada, which cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points. This decision reflects a broader trend of easing monetary policy aimed at supporting economic growth and controlling inflation.

The European Central Bank (ECB) is also on the verge of cutting interest rates. The ECB has also cut its interest rates by 25 basis points. Such measures typically have a stimulating effect on the economy by encouraging borrowing and stimulating consumer and business spending.

Effects on the money supply (M2)

The M2 money supply, which includes cash, demand deposits and easily liquidated short-term deposits, has reached a new all-time high in recent months. An expansion of the M2 money supply means more available liquidity in the financial system, which can have a positive impact on the prices of assets such as equities and Bitcoin.

Quantitative easing and bond buybacks

Another factor that increases liquidity is quantitative easing and bond buybacks. While the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the US has not yet announced any new quantitative easing programs, the Treasury Department is currently conducting government bond buybacks. Since May 28, up to 2 billion dollars have been injected into the market every week to increase liquidity. This measure is similar to the effects of quantitative easing and contributes to the expansion of the money supply.

Risks in the banking sector

In its last quarterly report, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), the US deposit insurance company, pointed to an increased risk in the banking sector. The number of problem banks has risen from 52 to 63, which corresponds to an increase of around 20%. These banks hold assets worth 82 billion dollars, an increase of 15 billion dollars compared to the previous report. Such risks could lead to the government taking further measures to support liquidity in order to boost confidence in the financial system.

Long-term outlook and correlations

In the long term, the expansionary monetary policy of central banks could lead to increased demand for limited assets such as Bitcoin. The correlation between Bitcoin and tech stocks, which is currently at its highest level since 2023, illustrates how closely developments in the traditional financial market are linked to the crypto market. As tech stocks benefit from central bank actions, this positive effect is also transferred to Bitcoin.

Historical yield curve inversions

Another important phenomenon is the current yield curve inversion, the longest in history. This inversion, where short-term interest rates are higher than long-term rates, is often seen as a harbinger of recession. Should a recession occur, central banks may be forced to drastically cut interest rates, which in turn could increase the appeal of Bitcoin as an inflation-protected asset.

Seasonality and election years

Seasonal factors and election years also play a role. Historically, the S&P 500 performs particularly well during election years, especially when the incumbent US president is up for re-election. These positive market conditions could also support the price of Bitcoin as investors look for alternative investment opportunities to capitalize on the positive sentiment. This year, for the first time, crypto is taking a bigger role in the US elections as new statistics show that voters favor pro-crypto candidates.

Potential Risks and Short-term Outlook

Despite the positive outlook, there are also potential risks. An overheating market and too much open interest could lead to short-term corrections. It is important to keep an eye on funding rates and other indicators in order to recognize potential overheating at an early stage.

Volatility and price movements

Historical data shows that periods of low volatility often lead to large price movements. Bitcoin is currently in such a phase, indicating that a significant move is imminent. Whether this move is up or down depends on various factors, but the likelihood of an increase is high due to current market conditions.

Long-term outlook and conclusions

In the long term, the future looks promising for Bitcoin. The continuous inflows into ETFs, the positive development in the traditional financial market and the technical indicators suggest that the Bitcoin price could continue to rise. Although short-term corrections are possible, the current market conditions provide a solid basis for a sustainable upward trend.


The importance of ETFs for the Bitcoin price cannot be overemphasized. The recent massive inflows into Bitcoin ETFs show the growing interest and confidence of institutional investors. Platforms such as Coinbase benefit from these inflows and contribute to price stability. The role of miners and regulatory developments worldwide complement this picture and create a robust basis for future price increases. In the long term, ETFs could be one of the main drivers for the Bitcoin market and pave the way for it to reach new highs.

Bitcoin is entering an exciting phase with the realistic prospect of reaching the $100,000 mark. The combination of institutional interest, positive market conditions and strong technical indicators make this a likely scenario. However, investors should remain cautious and monitor market conditions closely to make informed decisions.

Central banks have a significant influence on the financial markets through their monetary policy measures and therefore also on the Bitcoin price. Interest rate cuts, bond buybacks and an expansive monetary policy help to increase liquidity and create a favorable environment for risky assets such as Bitcoin. At the same time, increased risks in the banking sector and the possibility of a recession pose long-term challenges that could shake confidence in traditional financial instruments, making Bitcoin even more attractive as an alternative asset.


Ed Prinz serves as Chairman of, the most renowned non-profit organization in Austria specializing in blockchain technology. DLT Austria is actively involved in the education and promotion of the added value and application possibilities of distributed ledger technology. This is done through educational events, meetups, workshops and open discussions, all in voluntary collaboration with leading industry players.

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This is my personal opinion and not financial advice.

For this reason, I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information in this article. If you are unsure, you should consult a qualified advisor you trust. No guarantees or promises regarding profits are made in this article. All statements in this and other articles are my personal opinion.

By Ed Prinz

Ed Prinz co-founded, a digital marketplace for blockchain-secured assets, and chairs, a leading blockchain non-profit.

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